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How is the adventurous path of Bitcoin to $2,000?

Recently, the parabolic rise of Bitcoin has made it become a very very hot currency that attracts many investors and speculators. In my opinion, movements of this cryptocurrency these days are just a sign that Bitcoin is a bubble waiting to burst.

Fundamentally, the current uptrend of Bitcoin prices are due to the following factors:

#1. Rising demand of institution investors toward Bitcoin when they have begun to recognize Bitcoin as a long-term investment, store of value and settlement network.

#2. The explosive growth of the Japanese Bitcoin exchange market after the Japanese government’s legalization of Bitcoin and the elimination of taxes for Bitcoin trading have hugely impacted the Bitcoin trading ecosystem and the demand for the digital currency in Japan.

#3. The actions of governments in an attempt to regulate the Bitcoin environment when many more countries will become involved with Bitcoin regulation as the year continues, which is a positive development revealing that Bitcoin is becoming more legitimate and welcome into the mainstream.

Observing the recent long run of Bitcoin, many experts and technical analysts predict BTCUSD will rise towards $2,000 then  $3,000 or even $5,000 and $10,000  in 2017. Wherever Bitcoin prices go, there’s certainly higher volatility in Bitcoin price movement and it's riskier in trading Bitcoin.
From my point of view, technically, based on my Elliott Wave count, I expect BTCUSD will have difficulty in staying firmly above the $1,600 in the coming days and weeks. The Elliott Wave count on BTCUSD’s weekly chart shows that we’re in wave (3) of wave 5 in III that may follow an Impulse (IM) wave pattern. On the H4 chart, I expect wave (3) to top out around $1,600 – 1,610, then wave (4) will develop in a corrective Zigzag (ZZ) wave pattern. In short term, BTCUSD will have a period of consolidation $1,610 - $1,450. After that we may come into a downside movement that retreats to $1,270 (for wave C of (4) to finish the corrective period).

When this corrective wave finishes, BTCUSD is expected to rise again for the next uptrend in wave (5) of (5) in III that may rise toward $1,900 and the $2,000 psychological level within a couple of months later on.


Click the image for better and larger view

Prices of financial instruments move up and down in predictable cycles. After a parabolic upside cycle often comes a very steep downside one. I suppose that the bubble of Bitcoin market will burst someday and we may witness a panic crash in this market as we ever saw in gold and many other financial markets.

You may also like to read this article on The Market Oracle.

Wait to see and please be careful with this bubble market.

By Jack Huyn

Disclosure:
Please be informed that information I provide is for educational purposes only and not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from utilising methods believed to be reliable, but I cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.
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